Autumn Budget 2026 – with a month to go, what lies ahead?

With less than four weeks before the chancellor John Healey stands up to give his first Budget, leaks about what might be announced have been few and far between.

The lack of rumours has also led to a notable reduction in speculation, which has been welcomed by both SJP and markets. The panic seen in previous years around potential changes to pensions for example, appears to have been largely muted.

However, in his keynote speech to the Labour Party conference in Birmingham on Tuesday, the prime minister Andy Burnham set out a pledge to offer access to free social care services to everyone in England – on which he intends to lead Labour into the next election.

To partially fund this, Burnham said his government would end the pensions triple lock from 2030, replacing it instead with a double lock. This would mean the state pension increases in line with whichever is higher of inflation or 2.5%, rather than also taking average earnings growth into account. The government’s own figures show the state pension is the largest benefit in the UK, with public spending on it currently sitting at £154 billion per year (in 2026/27).¹

There were also other signs at the Labour Party conference that tax rises could be on the cards. In his first speech to the conference as chancellor, Healey described the UK’s soaring debt levels as “an assault on our common sense, they are an affront to our values.” He added that fiscal discipline was key to the government’s plans and that he and Burnham were ready to make tough choices in the Budget.

The deteriorating economic backdrop makes it even harder for Healey to promise good news. The US Iran conflict has seen oil prices soar, with Brent crude oil at more than $100 a barrel, putting pressure on businesses and consumers. Meanwhile gilt yields have continued to hit new highs. If wholesale energy costs continue to surge, households could face further bill increases with the next January energy price cap announcement.

When the chancellor took up his role, he inherited a fiscal buffer of around £24 billion from his predecessor Rachel Reeves. However, the conflict in the Middle East, rising inflation and higher government borrowing costs mean this has reduced substantially.

Hetal Mehta, Chief Economist at SJP, said: “It is possible that the chancellor opts for a smaller fiscal buffer for the time being, as a way to avoid starker tax rises or spending cuts, though that could leave the public finances vulnerable to any further shocks.”

On a more positive note, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development last week upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth in 2026, from 0.9% to 1.1%.

Help for first-time buyers

So far all that has been confirmed is help for first time buyers.

The proposed ‘Your First Home’ scheme was announced at the Labour Party conference this week. It is aimed at helping more first-time buyers get onto the property ladder by providing government-backed equity loans of 20%, to those with a deposit of at least 5%. Essentially, this is a return of the Conservative government’s Help to Buy scheme, but with added financial support expected from developers.

Speculation on individual measures would be unhelpful at this stage. Many tax and spend areas are likely to be in the mix of Budget announcements. It is also worth remembering that there will be a Spending Review next year, so there is scope for multiple announcements in the coming months.

Don’t try and predict the future

Whatever lies ahead, the key point is not to act quickly and rashly, based on rumours. The experience of previous years shows that many of those rumours are just that – with no change being announced. A relevant question to consider might be: how would you feel if you took an action, based on speculation of a change, which then didn’t come to pass and you found yourself in a more disadvantageous position? It is always worth trying to remain calm amid the Budget speculation and avoid making knee-jerk decisions.

Source

1 Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026 - GOV.UK